- The Blue Jays are -115 favorites vs the Phillies
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi, 0.00 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter, 4.90 ERA
The Toronto Blue Jays (-115) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-105) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Clearwater.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 7-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 4-6 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +130 | O 11.5 -105 | -115 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -155 | U 11.5 -115 | -105 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.67 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.90 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 6-4 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 23.38% ROI).
- 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 27.04% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.45 Units / 4.04% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -13.36% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -21.1% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 4.65% ROI
- 8-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 50.89% ROI
- 2-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.65 Units / -61.29% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi walked 49 of 355 right-handed batters (14%) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an OPS of 1.432 (201 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 1.056 — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi walked 58 of 454 batters (13%) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 53% (338/641) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (83/252) against Bailey Falter last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Bailey Falter had an average spin rate of 1915.4 RPM on fastballs last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 2228.5 — third Percentile.
Bailey Falter located 46% of his pitches inside (477/1,033) against right-handed batters last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Falter threw fastballs 65% of the time (673/1,033) against right-handed batters last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 97th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are just 4-57 (.066) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Blue Jays are 68-5 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Blue Jays are 104-88 (.542) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Blue Jays are 78-20 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,888 strikeouts in 9,431 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Blue Jays batted .264 last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,323 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers walked 428 of 6,098 batters (7%) last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers walked 92 of 1,455 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 901 of 12,014 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
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