- The Blue Jays are -105 favorites vs the Phillies
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Toronto Blue Jays (-105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-115) on Wednesday, May 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 21-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 15-21 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -105 | -105 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -115 | -115 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+10.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+10.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+15.70 Units / 87% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
Phillies vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+2.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 19-17 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.11% ROI).
- 21-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.73% ROI
- 17-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -4.45% ROI
- 17-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -5.14% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 15-21 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -23.67% ROI).
- 17-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.85 Units / -13.52% ROI
- 17-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -6.43% ROI
- 18-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.88% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OBP of just .094 (96 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .065 (6-for-93) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .168 — 98th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 33% (58 SO in 175 PAs) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 53% (32 SO in 61 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (32/81) against Zack Wheeler when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (118 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 80.5
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.5 MPH on inside pitches since the 2021 season (505 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 85.4
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (53/161) against Zack Wheeler this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 91st Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are 2-12 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Blue Jays are 42-59 (.416) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Blue Jays are just 2-11 (.154) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Blue Jays are 99-4 (.961) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Phillies are just 89-7 (.927) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Phillies are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .375 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Blue Jays are batting .265 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .761 (6,021 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Blue Jays hitters have just 58 strikeouts in 326 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .282 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
28% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .519 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 22 of 318 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (111.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 6.33 (159.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
The Phillies have allowed 6.21 runs per game (118/19) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.57.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 14 double plays in 233 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 210 of 3,170 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- George Springer (Blue Jays): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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