Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 20

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 20, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Blue Jays (83-64) are -125 favorites vs the Phillies (80-66)
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Thomas Stripling (8-4), 2.94 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (10-6), 4.45 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Toronto Blue Jays (-125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+105) on Tuesday, September 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are 81-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 72-71 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +125O 8.5 -105-125
Phillies +1.5 -155U 8.5 -115+105

Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Tuesday‘s matchup with confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 58 of his last 103 games (+12.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 52 away games (+8.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Alek Manoah has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 63 games (+11.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Edmundo Sosa has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Johan Camargo has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)

Phillies vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Bryce Harper 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Bryson Stott 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +325 0.5 -600

Phillies vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Bryce Harper 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Bryson Stott 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Phillies vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Bryce Harper 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Bryson Stott 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

Phillies vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Gibson 3.5 -155 3.5 +105
Ross Stripling 4.5 -105 4.5 -140
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games (+3.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.05 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.10 Units / 10% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 62-82 against the Run Line (-23.55 Units / -13.81% ROI).

  • 81-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.9 Units / -8.19% ROI
  • 72-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -1.87% ROI
  • 68-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.15 Units / -7.6% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 72-71 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -0.86% ROI).

  • 79-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 1.02% ROI
  • 72-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.25% ROI
  • 66-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.5 Units / -7.9% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .127 (8-for-63) against Ross Stripling this month (3 games) — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 97th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Ross Stripling this season is 381.8 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 398.1

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (12/47) against Ross Stripling this month (3 games) — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.

Ross Stripling has allowed an OBP of just .152 (46 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .277 — 100th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Gibson has allowed an OBP of .400 (120 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .305 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (217/660) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 59% (375/640) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (tied for fifth lowest)– 12th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (third highest among qualified SPs)– 95th Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Blue Jays are 70-4 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Blue Jays are 70-18 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Blue Jays are 43-32 (.573) at home this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Blue Jays are 14-11 (.560) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Phillies are 14-50 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Phillies are 11-50 (.180) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 65-4 (.942) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .660 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.

The Blue Jays are batting .262 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Blue Jays hitters have just 2,340 strikeouts in 11,640 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Blue Jays are batting .369 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Phillies hitters are slugging .443 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .781 (1,631 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,631 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Phillies hitters are slugging .490 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 381 of 5,491 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 854 of 11,407 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 83 of 1,314 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 4 of 160 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (3,527 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (3,527 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,453 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.