Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 21

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 21, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Blue Jays (84-64) are -105 favorites vs the Phillies (80-67)
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman (12-10), 3.44 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (11-7), 3.06 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Toronto Blue Jays (-105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-115) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are 82-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 72-72 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +150O 8 +100-105
Phillies +1.5 -185U 8 -120-115

Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Blue Jays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 58 of his last 104 games (+11.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Alek Manoah has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 away games (+7.50 Units / 101% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 53 away games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+13.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 64 games (+10.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Edmundo Sosa has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Johan Camargo has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)

Phillies vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Bryce Harper 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Bryson Stott 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Phillies vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Bryce Harper 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Bryson Stott 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Phillies vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Bryce Harper 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Bryson Stott 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Phillies vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zack Wheeler 3.5 -140 3.5 -105
Gausman 5.5 -160 5.5 +115
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 53 away games (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games at home (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+1.60 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.30 Units / 1% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 63-82 against the Run Line (-22.15 Units / -12.91% ROI).

  • 82-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -7.74% ROI
  • 73-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -1.23% ROI
  • 68-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -8.2% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 72-72 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -1.77% ROI).

  • 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 0.55% ROI
  • 73-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.37% ROI
  • 66-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -8.51% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 38% (488/1,284) against Kevin Gausman since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 56% of Kevin Gausman’s pitches (1,425/2,547) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (507/1,282) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 43% (223/520) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.2 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (437 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 85.3

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (178 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,628/3,687) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (164 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 89.7

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Blue Jays are 41-32 (.562) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Blue Jays are 70-18 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Blue Jays are 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Blue Jays are 14-11 (.560) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Phillies are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-51 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 65-4 (.942) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Blue Jays are batting .263 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .735 on the road over the past seven days (1 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .380.

Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .815 (4,046 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

Blue Jays hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .532 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .779 (1,634 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

The Phillies are batting .267 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .769 (2,791 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 11.00 (9.0 IP) on the road over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 4 of 169 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 857 of 11,452 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 83 of 1,323 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 177 of 2,727 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 24 of 454 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (3,527 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Blue Jays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.