- The Blue Jays (84-64) are -105 favorites vs the Phillies (80-67)
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman (12-10), 3.44 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (11-7), 3.06 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Toronto Blue Jays (-105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-115) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Blue Jays are 82-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 72-72 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +150 | O 8 +100 | -105 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -185 | U 8 -120 | -115 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 58 of his last 104 games (+11.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alek Manoah has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 away games (+7.50 Units / 101% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 53 away games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+13.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 64 games (+10.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- Johan Camargo has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)
Phillies vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 -105 |
| Gausman | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 53 away games (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 41% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games at home (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+1.60 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.30 Units / 1% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 63-82 against the Run Line (-22.15 Units / -12.91% ROI).
- 82-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -7.74% ROI
- 73-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -1.23% ROI
- 68-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -8.2% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 72-72 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -1.77% ROI).
- 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 0.55% ROI
- 73-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.37% ROI
- 66-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -8.51% ROI
Kevin Gausman: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 38% (488/1,284) against Kevin Gausman since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 56% of Kevin Gausman’s pitches (1,425/2,547) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (507/1,282) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 43% (223/520) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.2 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (437 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 85.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (178 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,628/3,687) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (164 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 89.7
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are 41-32 (.562) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Blue Jays are 70-18 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Blue Jays are 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Blue Jays are 14-11 (.560) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 14-51 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 65-4 (.942) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .263 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .735 on the road over the past seven days (1 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .380.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .815 (4,046 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Blue Jays hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .532 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .779 (1,634 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Phillies are batting .267 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .769 (2,791 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 11.00 (9.0 IP) on the road over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 4 of 169 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 857 of 11,452 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 83 of 1,323 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 177 of 2,727 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 24 of 454 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (3,527 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
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