- The Blue Jays are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Toronto Blue Jays (-155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Blue Jays vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 18-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 20-12 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +105 | O 9 -110 | -155 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | U 9 -110 | +130 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+13.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+12.05 Units / 72% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.55 Units / 53% ROI)
Pirates vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Chris Bassitt | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games (+12.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.65 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 16-16 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -4.46% ROI).
- 18-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -3.22% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -10.41% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.99% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 20-12 against the Run Line (+6.6 Units / 15.9% ROI).
- 20-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 32.55% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -3.83% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -3.27% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .246 SLG vs right-handed batters (sixth best)– 94th Percentile and .615 vs left-handed batters this season (fourth worst among qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has walked 6 of 25 left-handed batters (24%) — tied for highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has walked 7 of 48 batters (15%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (92/491) against Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (279/548) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
7 of Rich Hill’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill has allowed a slugging percentage of .708 (17 Total Bases / 24 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .369 — first Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 67% of the time (115/171) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 2-12 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Blue Jays are 37-28 (.569) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Blue Jays are 13-1 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Blue Jays are 7-8 (.467) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Pirates are just 8-86 (.085) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Pirates are 18-1 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .890.
The Pirates are just 117-77 (.603) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .329 (5,886 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Blue Jays are batting .373 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .758 (5,886 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Pirates are batting just .223 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .297 (3,957 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 15 of 283 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 520 of 7,293 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 695 of 7,438 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.26 (165.2 IP) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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