- The Blue Jays are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Toronto Blue Jays (-135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Blue Jays vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 20-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 20-14 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -120 | -135 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | U 9 +100 | +110 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+13.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+11.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+8.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+8.80 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.10 Units / 88% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+6.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Pirates vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Miguel Andujar | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Miguel Andujar | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Miguel Andujar | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roansy Contreras | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -165 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.30 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 91% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 18-16 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.83% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.76% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -10.05% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 0.8% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 20-14 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 9.32% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 25.59% ROI
- 16-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -3.87% ROI
- 16-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -3.22% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (75 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Yusei Kikuchi has a strikeout rate of 41% (17 SO in 42 PAs) in late innings since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has walked 54 of 461 right-handed batters (12%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.9 MPH (91 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.8 — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras has walked 11 of 79 right-handed batters (14%) this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has not struck out any hitters in 28 PA’s in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has allowed an OBP of .514 (35 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — first Percentile.
Roansy Contreras walked 4 of 18 right-handed batters (22%) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 2-12 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Blue Jays are 83-5 (.943) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Blue Jays are 9-5 (.643) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Blue Jays are 15-1 (.938) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .850.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 117-78 (.600) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Pirates are 13-0 (1.000) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Pirates are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Pirates are just 8-88 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .373 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Blue Jays are batting .259 with two outs since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .330 (1,573 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .148 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Pirates are batting just .121 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 526 of 7,359 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 109 of 1,756 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 17 of 301 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 706 of 7,521 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.26 (165.2 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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