- The Rays (84-68) are -145 favorites vs the Blue Jays (85-67)
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Thomas Stripling (8-4), 3.21 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan (12-6), 2.36 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Toronto Blue Jays (+120) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-145) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5.
The Blue Jays vs Rays Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Blue Jays are 85-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 75-76 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 | O 6.5 -105 | +120 |
| Rays | –1.5 | U 6.5 -115 | -145 |
Blue Jays vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s matchup with 57.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+11.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 57 away games (+9.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alek Manoah has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.35 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+13.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+12.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.05 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 60 games at home (+14.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games at home (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+7.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 60 games at home (+4.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 65-86 against the Run Line (-25.9 Units / -14.39% ROI).
- 85-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -7.63% ROI
- 76-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -2.04% ROI
- 72-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -7.44% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 75-76 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.3% ROI).
- 84-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -1.07% ROI
- 67-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.25 Units / -8.06% ROI
- 75-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Thomas Stripling: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Ross Stripling this season is 382.1 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 398.0
Ross Stripling has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (346/494) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Ross Stripling has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to September 4th — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 6.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (18/65) against Ross Stripling this month (4 games) — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Shane McClanahan: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .188 (105-for-559) against Shane McClanahan this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 97th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has allowed an OPS of just .320 (349 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .462 — 100th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has allowed an OBP of just .065 (31 PA’s) in late innings this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has allowed an OBP of just .239 (598 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 97th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Blue Jays are 72-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Blue Jays are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Blue Jays are 42-35 (.545) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Blue Jays are 15-13 (.536) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Rays are 52-8 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Rays are just 70-10 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are 17-114 (.130) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .262 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .662 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .364 (622 PA’s) against RHP this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Blue Jays hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put 48% of their swings in play against LHP this month (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Rays hitters have just 16 strikeouts in 117 PA’s (14%) against LHP this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays hitters have an OBP of just .310 (1,371 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 872 of 11,578 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 8 of 195 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 399 of 5,662 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 792 of 11,540 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 356 of 5,542 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 163 of 2,812 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 70 of 1,350 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Yandy Díaz (Rays): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Taylor Walls (Rays): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
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