Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 23, 2022, 10:25 AM
  • The Blue Jays (65-55) are -150 favorites vs the Red Sox (60-62)
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Thomas Stripling (5-3), 2.93 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (5-6), 5.19 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Toronto Blue Jays (-150) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+125) on Tuesday, August 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are 63-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 60-59 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +100O 9.5 -110-150
Red Sox +1.5 -120U 9.5 -110+125

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 away games (+14.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 45 of his last 76 games (+13.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 50 away games (+12.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+11.00 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+15.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+13.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 54 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 78 games (+21.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+1.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 away games (+1.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 102 games (+6.45 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.95 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.35 Units / 19% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 50-67 against the Run Line (-21.6 Units / -15.23% ROI).

  • 63-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.8 Units / -11.56% ROI
  • 59-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -3.05% ROI
  • 57-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -6.82% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 60-59 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.24% ROI).

  • 58-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -6.57% ROI
  • 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -7.59% ROI
  • 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.34% ROI

Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (10/13) against Ross Stripling — 3rd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Ross Stripling allowed an OPS of just .100 (20 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .652 — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 100 of Ross Stripling’s 492 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.

The average home run distance against Ross Stripling this season is 377.7 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 398.1

Joshua Winckowski: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (71/448) against Josh Winckowski this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has struck out just 12% (17/138) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% (24/47) against Josh Winckowski on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has thrown his slider 39% of the time (200/517) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Blue Jays are 54-15 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Blue Jays are 51-2 (.962) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Blue Jays are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Blue Jays are 56-3 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Red Sox are just 6-26 (.188) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Red Sox are just 2-48 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Red Sox are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 16-129 (.110) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .660 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .819 (3,671 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .778 (10,591 PA’s) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Blue Jays are batting .263 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 55% against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Red Sox hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 789 of 10,379 batters (8%) since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 37% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 316 of 4,463 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,295 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox have won 44% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Julian Merryweather (Blue Jays): Side, D60
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
  • Timothy Mayza (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.