Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 23, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Blue Jays (51-43) are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox (48-46)
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Alek Manoah (10-4), 2.27 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (2-2), 4.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Toronto Blue Jays (-175) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+145) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are 51-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 50-44 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 -110O 9.5 -115-175
Red Sox +1.5 -110U 9.5 -105+145

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 59.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+13.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 36 away games (+11.05 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+10.60 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games at home (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Franchy Cordero has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 74% ROI)

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Jarren Duran 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Franchy Cordero 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jeter Downs 0.5 -115 0.5 -125
Xander Bogaerts 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Alejandro Kirk 1.5 +150 1.5 -200

Red Sox vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Jarren Duran 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kutter Crawford 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
Alek Manoah 5.5 -165 5.5 +120
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 52 games (+22.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games (+17.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+1.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+0.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+10.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 65 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 60 games (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 games (+8.55 Units / 10% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 40-54 against the Run Line (-18.35 Units / -15.94% ROI).

  • 51-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -9.85% ROI
  • 50-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 2.39% ROI
  • 43-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -13 Units / -12.43% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 50-44 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 5.18% ROI).

  • 48-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -3.25% ROI
  • 42-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -4.16% ROI
  • 43-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -2.55% ROI

Alek Manoah has allowed an OBP of just .208 (221 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .157 (32-for-204) against Alek Manoah this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .156 (63-for-403) against Alek Manoah since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.

Alek Manoah has allowed a slugging percentage of just .260 (53 Total Bases / 204 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — 100th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kutter Crawford allowed a batting average of just .136 vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth best)– 90th Percentile and .368 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fifth worst among qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has allowed a just .136 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 94th Percentile and .737 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (second worst among qualified SPs)– third Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has thrown off-speed pitches 87% of the time (26/30) when he’s behind in the count — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (3/20) against Kutter Crawford this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Blue Jays are just 7-11 (.389) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Blue Jays are just 2-34 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Blue Jays are 42-2 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Blue Jays are 39-1 (.975) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Red Sox are just 133-19 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 38-7 (.844) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Red Sox are just 6-19 (.240) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Blue Jays are batting .266 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .790 (2,344 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .673 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

The Blue Jays are batting .277 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .173.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have 3 strikeouts in 6 PA’s (50%) against LHP over the past seven days (2 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .809 (4,705 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 11 of 308 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 718 of 9,413 batters (8%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 25% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.59 (87.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 19.08 (25.0 IP) over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.08 (159.0 IP) this month (18 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.51 (73.0 IP) at home this month (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Julio Martinez (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Right Hamstring, D10
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Joshua Winckowski (Red Sox): COVID-19, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Julian Merryweather (Blue Jays): Side, D60
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
  • Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays): Neck, D15
  • Andrew Vasquez (Blue Jays): Ankle, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.