- The Blue Jays are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Blue Jays / Red Sox TV Channel: RSN | TVA | NESN
The Toronto Blue Jays (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Saturday, June 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Blue Jays are 44-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 40-42 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 7-3, 3.62 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 3-1, 4.59 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +130 | O 9 -102 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | U 9 -118 | +100 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ernie Clement has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Alejandro Kirk has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+9.50 Units / 106% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.50 Units / 193% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 41% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 80 games (+15.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+14.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.64 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 away games (+8.45 Units / 48% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+10.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+7.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 65 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+5.21 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.90 Units / 67% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 49-31 against the Run Line (+14.55 Units / 12.76% ROI).
- 44-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.44 Units / 4.56% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 5.5% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -13.35% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 40-42 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -2.15% ROI).
- 40-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.26 Units / -10.44% ROI
- 38-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.52 Units / -11.48% ROI
- 44-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 2.53% ROI
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 5.5 -118 | 5.5 -110 |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (160/393) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt allowed an OBP of .352 (756 PA’s) in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has a strikeout rate of just 26% (22 SO in 84 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 16th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .056 (1-for-18) against Chris Bassitt when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .216 — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .130 (3-for-23) against Lucas Giolito in his last two starts — 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 87th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has struck out 32% (8/25) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — 82nd Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed an OPS of just .461 (25 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in his last two starts — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .691 — 82nd Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of just .217 (5 Total Bases / 23 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .419 — 94th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Blue Jays are 7-27 (.206) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Blue Jays are just 35-3 (.921) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .958.
The Blue Jays are 31-3 (.912) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 7-86 (.075) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 51-171 (.230) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Red Sox are just 4-176 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .277 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Blue Jays hitters have struck out in just 14% of their PA’s against LHP this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging just .146 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of just .163 (239 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Blue Jays pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Blue Jays pitchers this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 12% of batters over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 13% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have 133 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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