- The Blue Jays are -150 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber
- Watch the game on NESN
The Toronto Blue Jays (-150) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+125) on Monday, May 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 18-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 15-14 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +100 | O 10 -115 | -150 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -120 | U 10 -105 | +125 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 67.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+10.15 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+8.05 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+16.40 Units / 56% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 62% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+10.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
| Corey Kluber | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+7.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+3.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 16-12 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 6.93% ROI).
- 18-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 11.21% ROI
- 10-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.65 Units / -24.92% ROI
- 16-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 15.51% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 15-14 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 0.82% ROI).
- 15-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 1.33% ROI
- 19-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.1 Units / 25.71% ROI
- 10-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -35.08% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 3% (1 SO in 30 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (64/115) this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — eighth Percentile.
Jose Berrios has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 12.1 innings pitched — Pete Fairbanks has the longest active streak at 31.2.
Jose Berrios has walked 1 of 49 left-handed batters (2%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corey Kluber has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to October 2nd, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents are hitting .347 (52-for-150) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .248 — second Percentile.
Corey Kluber has a strike rate of 70% (1,037/1,472) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has an average fastball velocity of just 88.0 MPH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 2-9 (.182) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Blue Jays are 37-24 (.607) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Blue Jays are 41-58 (.414) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Blue Jays are 20-15 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Red Sox are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 6-6 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Red Sox are 11-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 49 strikeouts in 285 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Blue Jays hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 299 strikeouts in 1,538 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .442 (95 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting just .219 with two outs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 106 of 1,705 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 14 of 250 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (747.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.04.
Red Sox pitchers have not walked any of the 53 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.99 (256.0 IP) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 18 of 256 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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