- The Blue Jays are -145 favorites vs the Reds
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Reds starting pitcher: Brett Kennedy
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Toronto Blue Jays (-145) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+120) on Friday, August 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Blue Jays vs Reds Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 67-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 75-47 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +105 | O 10.5 -115 | -145 |
| Reds | +1.5 -125 | U 10.5 -105 | +120 |
Blue Jays vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 70.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Blue Jays vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 48 games (+10.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.00 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+19.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+16.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+12.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Reds vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Reds vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Reds vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 6.5 +135 | 6.5 -175 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 97 games (+18.04 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 away games (+5.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+4.89 Units / 12% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 91 games (+25.64 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 121 games (+24.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 91 games (+15.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+11.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 76 games (+7.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 58-64 against the Run Line (-7.25 Units / -4.77% ROI).
- 67-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -4.47% ROI
- 49-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.85 Units / -18.02% ROI
- 67-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.95 Units / 9.66% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 75-47 against the Run Line (+23 Units / 14.43% ROI).
- 63-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.45 Units / 10.12% ROI
- 61-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -2.76% ROI
- 59-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.7 Units / -5.84% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .270 against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats this season — seventh best among qualified SPs– 89th Percentile. Opponents batted .402 (37-for-92) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — fifth worst among qualified SPs– 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 46% (26/56) against Jose Berrios in late innings since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (51/140) against Jose Berrios in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .270 (17-for-63) against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 89th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .621 (133 Total Bases / 214 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .418 — 0 Percentile.
Luke Weaver has allowed an OPS of .996 (232 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .727 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (129/446) against Luke Weaver since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .397 (29 GB hits out of 73 GBs) against Luke Weaver with runners on base since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Blue Jays are 17-11 (.607) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Blue Jays are 11-5 (.688) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Blue Jays are just 5-38 (.116) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Blue Jays are 30-41 (.423) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Reds are 22-39 (.361) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Reds are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds are 21-9 (.700) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .265 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,008 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .336 (2,261 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Blue Jays hitters have just 442 strikeouts in 2,261 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds are batting just .144 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Games involving the Reds went UNDER in 72% of their games (39.7% ROI) after a loss as favorites since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Reds are batting just .322 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 795 of 10,665 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 51% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 232 of 2,517 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Toe, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pectoral, D15
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Bo Bichette (Blue Jays): Knee, D10
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Otto Lopez (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Hagen Danner (Blue Jays): Oblique, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
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