- The Blue Jays are -145 favorites vs the Reds
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Toronto Blue Jays (-145) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+120) on Saturday, August 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Blue Jays vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 67-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 76-47 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +105 | O 10 -115 | -145 |
| Reds | +1.5 -130 | U 10 -105 | +120 |
Blue Jays vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 64.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 49 games (+11.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 40 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brandon Belt has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.45 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+21.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+17.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+13.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Reds vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Reds vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Brandon Williamson | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 98 games (+19.04 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+5.89 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 away games (+5.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 92 games (+26.64 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 76 of their last 122 games (+25.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 92 games (+15.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games at home (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+6.55 Units / 28% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 58-65 against the Run Line (-8.25 Units / -5.39% ROI).
- 67-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -5.27% ROI
- 49-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -25 Units / -18.73% ROI
- 68-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.95 Units / 10.33% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 76-47 against the Run Line (+24 Units / 14.94% ROI).
- 64-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.7 Units / 10.97% ROI
- 61-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -3.6% ROI
- 60-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -5.04% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .305 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 92nd Percentile and .524 vs left-handed batters this season (third worst among qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (177 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Chris Bassitt has averaged 77.7 MPH on sliders since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — third Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OPS of just .574 (308 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .696 — 96th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 16% (102/627) against Miles Mikolas in 2022 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 19% (295/1,579) against Miles Mikolas in 2022 — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has allowed an OPS of just .342 (45 PA’s) — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .683 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 21% (172/828) against Miles Mikolas in 2022 — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Blue Jays are 17-11 (.607) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Blue Jays are 11-5 (.688) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Blue Jays are 62-25 (.713) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Blue Jays are just 5-38 (.116) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Reds are 22-39 (.361) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Reds are just 41-31 (.569) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Reds are 21-13 (.618) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .265 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,302 strikeouts in 6,660 PA’s (20%) in righty-righty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,805 strikeouts in 8,644 PA’s (21%) against RHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .322 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Reds have a winning percentage of 55% on the road this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Reds are 22-39 (.361) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
Games involving the Reds went UNDER in 72% of their games (39.7% ROI) after a loss as favorites since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 174 of 2,556 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 800 of 10,698 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 232 of 2,526 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Reds pitchers have won 51% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Reds vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Toe, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pectoral, D15
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Otto Lopez (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Hagen Danner (Blue Jays): Oblique, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
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