Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Blue Jays are -125 favorites vs the Twins
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos (8-4), 4.95 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle (5-7), 4.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Toronto Blue Jays (-125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+105) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are 59-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 48-57 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +125O 8.5 +100-125
Twins +1.5 -155U 8.5 -120+105

Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s matchup with 66.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Blue Jays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 36 away games (+14.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 41 away games (+14.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 41 away games (+13.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 38 games at home (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+13.55 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+11.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Carlos Correa 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Gio Urshela 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jake Cave 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Twins vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Carlos Correa 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Gio Urshela 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Jake Cave 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Twins vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Carlos Correa 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Gio Urshela 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jake Cave 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Twins vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mahle 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
Jose Berrios 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 63 games (+21.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.05 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+10.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 68 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 93 games (+3.50 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 26% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 48-57 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -10.59% ROI).

  • 59-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -8.19% ROI
  • 53-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -2.92% ROI
  • 51-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -7.08% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 48-57 against the Run Line (-11.8 Units / -9.26% ROI).

  • 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -0.92% ROI
  • 50-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.86% ROI
  • 47-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -6.72% ROI

Jose Berrios has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (56 Total Bases / 84 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .363 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .365 (38-for-104) against Jose Berrios on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (27/148) against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.

Jose Berrios has an ERA of 7.15 (50.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.68 — third Percentile.

Tyler Mahle: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 31% (27 SO in 86 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (16/132) against Tyler Mahle on fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (86/283) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 38% (480/1,276) against Tyler Mahle in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Blue Jays are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Blue Jays are 34-21 (.618) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Blue Jays are 47-1 (.979) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Blue Jays are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 49-14 (.778) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Twins are 4-37 (.098) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Twins are just 46-6 (.885) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Blue Jays are batting .267 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Blue Jays hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Blue Jays are batting .270 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Blue Jays hitters have just 148 strikeouts in 811 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Twins hitters are slugging .610 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .574.

Twins hitters are slugging .530 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.

Twins hitters have 51 extra-base hits out of 101 total hits (51%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Twins are batting just .167 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 276 of 3,894 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 749 of 9,810 batters (8%) since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.63 (434.0 IP) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Blue Jays pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Twins vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, D10
  • Julian Merryweather (Blue Jays): Side, D60
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
  • Thomas Stripling (Blue Jays): Glute/Hip, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.