- The Blue Jays are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos (8-4), 4.95 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle (5-7), 4.39 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Toronto Blue Jays (-125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+105) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Blue Jays are 59-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 48-57 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 +100 | -125 |
| Twins | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s matchup with 66.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 36 away games (+14.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 41 away games (+14.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 41 away games (+13.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 38 games at home (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+13.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+11.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Carlos Correa | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Twins vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mahle | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
| Jose Berrios | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 63 games (+21.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.25 Units / 42% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+10.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 68 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 93 games (+3.50 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 26% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 48-57 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -10.59% ROI).
- 59-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -8.19% ROI
- 53-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 51-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -7.08% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 48-57 against the Run Line (-11.8 Units / -9.26% ROI).
- 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -0.92% ROI
- 50-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.86% ROI
- 47-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -6.72% ROI
José Berríos: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (56 Total Bases / 84 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .363 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .365 (38-for-104) against Jose Berrios on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (27/148) against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.
Jose Berrios has an ERA of 7.15 (50.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.68 — third Percentile.
Tyler Mahle: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 31% (27 SO in 86 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (16/132) against Tyler Mahle on fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (86/283) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 38% (480/1,276) against Tyler Mahle in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Blue Jays are 34-21 (.618) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Blue Jays are 47-1 (.979) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Blue Jays are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 49-14 (.778) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Twins are 4-37 (.098) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Twins are just 46-6 (.885) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .267 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Blue Jays hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Blue Jays are batting .270 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Blue Jays hitters have just 148 strikeouts in 811 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .610 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Twins hitters are slugging .530 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Twins hitters have 51 extra-base hits out of 101 total hits (51%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Twins are batting just .167 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 276 of 3,894 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 749 of 9,810 batters (8%) since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.63 (434.0 IP) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Blue Jays pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, D10
- Julian Merryweather (Blue Jays): Side, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
- Thomas Stripling (Blue Jays): Glute/Hip, D15
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