- The Twins are -150 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi, 1.38 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle, 6.00 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Toronto Blue Jays (+125) visit CenturyLink Sports Complex to take on the Minnesota Twins (-150) on Thursday, March 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Fort Myers.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 13-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 8-9 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -150 | O 9 -120 | +125 |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | U 9 +100 | -150 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.60 Units / 180% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.75 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.70 Units / 135% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.67 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.90 Units / 41% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 72 games at home (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games at home (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+7.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 11-8 against the Run Line (+4.05 Units / 18.49% ROI).
- 13-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 25.05% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -14.11% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 6.22% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -11.44% ROI).
- 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 7.25% ROI
- 6-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -27.39% ROI
- 10-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 20.66% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi walked 49 of 355 right-handed batters (14%) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi walked 58 of 454 batters (13%) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi walked 29 of 173 batters (17%) versus the top of the order last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an OPS of 1.432 (201 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 1.056 — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 16% (26/161) against Tyler Mahle last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 32% (103/326) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (23/155) versus Tyler Mahle on fastballs last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% (135/505) against Tyler Mahle on inside fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are 45-36 (.556) on the road last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Blue Jays are 78-20 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Blue Jays are 17-14 (.548) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are just 22-30 (.423) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 10-42 (.192) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Blue Jays hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
The Blue Jays are batting .265 since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins have hit 2,031 balls in play with an exit velocity over 100 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have put 40% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers walked 428 of 6,098 batters (7%) last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers walked 92 of 1,455 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 901 of 12,014 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
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