- The Blue Jays are -155 favorites vs the Twins
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland
- Watch the game on BSN
The Toronto Blue Jays (-155) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+130) on Friday, May 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 26-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 26-24 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -105 | -155 |
| Twins | +1.5 -130 | U 7.5 -115 | +130 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 71.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+11.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+10.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+9.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- Brandon Belt has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+12.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+10.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+9.35 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+8.90 Units / 44% ROI)
Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
Twins vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Louie Varland | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
| Gausman | 8.5 +115 | 8.5 -150 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 away games (+1.85 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+1.25 Units / 7% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+5.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.65 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 24-27 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -8.06% ROI).
- 26-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -10.65% ROI
- 26-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 2.08% ROI
- 23-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -10.37% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 26-24 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 3.16% ROI).
- 26-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -7.54% ROI
- 21-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.75 Units / -13.99% ROI
- 26-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 5.55% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OBP of just .132 (144 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 98th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman’s K:BB ratio is 15.7 (47/3) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.6 — 98th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 40% (19 SO in 48 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .109 (15 Total Bases / 138 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .265 — 98th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
7 of Louie Varland’s 31 strikeouts (23%) have come on cutters this season — tied for 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 95th Percentile.
Louie Varland has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last three games dating back to May 9th — Cristian Javier has the longest active streak at 7.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 57% (12/21) against Louie Varland on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 40% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .353 (6-for-17) against Louie Varland versus the 2-3-4 hitters over the last 14 days (2 games) — tied for 6th highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 13th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are 3-20 (.130) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Blue Jays are 86-7 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Blue Jays are just 21-2 (.913) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Blue Jays are just 4-11 (.267) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-44 (.254) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Twins are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .609.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 76 strikeouts in 435 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have 26 extra-base hits out of 102 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Blue Jays are batting .267 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Blue Jays are batting .377 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Twins are batting just .211 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .214 (1,036 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Twins are batting just .214 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D10
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Carlos Correa (Twins): Heel, Day-to-Day
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
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