Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 27, 2023, 3:33 PM
  • The Twins are -120 favorites vs the Blue Jays
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
  • Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Toronto Blue Jays (+100) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-120) on Saturday, May 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Blue Jays are 27-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 26-25 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays+1.5 -200O 8 -110+100
Twins -1.5 +165U 8 -110-120

Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 away games (+10.10 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Kevin Kiermaier has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+9.75 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+9.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.75 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+11.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Kyle Farmer has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
George Springer 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600

Twins vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -160 0.5 +120
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 -225 0.5 +175
George Springer 0.5 -225 0.5 +175

Twins vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
George Springer 0.5 +220 0.5 -300

Twins vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 6.5 +100 6.5 -130
Chris Bassitt 6.5 +120 6.5 -155
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 away games (+3.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 away games (+2.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+6.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+4.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.05 Units / 18% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 25-27 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -6.16% ROI).

  • 27-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -9.13% ROI
  • 26-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • 24-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.9 Units / -8.46% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 26-25 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 0.89% ROI).

  • 26-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -8.81% ROI
  • 21-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -15.74% ROI
  • 27-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 7.23% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .186 (41-for-220) against Chris Bassitt this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — 97th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .154 (19-for-123) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 98th Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed an OPS of just .488 (136 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .695 — 100th Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed a BABIP of .199 this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 97th Percentile.

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 33% (64/195) against Pablo Lopez this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 29% of the time (183/627) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 30% (75 SO in 246 PAs) this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (173/243) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Blue Jays are 3-20 (.130) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.

The Blue Jays are 102-24 (.810) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Blue Jays are 13-14 (.481) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Blue Jays are just 22-2 (.917) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .608.

The Twins are just 13-27 (.325) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Twins are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.

The Blue Jays are batting .267 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Blue Jays hitters have just 76 strikeouts in 435 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Blue Jays hitters have just 326 strikeouts in 1,688 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Blue Jays hitters have 26 extra-base hits out of 102 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Twins are batting just .136 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.

Twins hitters have been successful in 160% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.

The Twins are batting just .214 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Twins hitters are slugging just .368 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 17 of 127 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Twins vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Hamstring, D10
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
  • Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D10
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
  • Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Groin, D10
  • Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
  • Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
  • Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.