- The Blue Jays are -115 favorites vs the Twins
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Watch the game on BSN
The Toronto Blue Jays (-115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-105) on Sunday, May 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 27-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 27-25 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -105 | -115 |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -115 | -105 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 53.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+10.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 72% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+8.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 68% ROI)
Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
Twins vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
| Jose Berrios | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 18 away games (+0.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 away games (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+5.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 25-28 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -9.1% ROI).
- 27-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -10.31% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 1.73% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -10.16% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 27-25 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 3.68% ROI).
- 27-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -7.32% ROI
- 22-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.9 Units / -13.7% ROI
- 27-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 5.17% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has located his pitches away 61% of the time (150/246) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 8% (5 SO in 63 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (12/70) against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to May 1st — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 7.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 74% of the time (1,137/1,529) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 81% of the time (207/254) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 78% of the time (523/673) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (13/57) against Bailey Ober this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are 3-21 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Blue Jays are just 16-8 (.667) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Blue Jays are 45-69 (.395) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Blue Jays are 13-14 (.481) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .607.
The Twins are 16-11 (.593) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Twins are 7-5 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .267 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Blue Jays hitters have 26 extra-base hits out of 102 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Blue Jays are batting .264 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .139 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have 123 strikeouts in 440 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins hitters have been successful in 160% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Twins pitchers put just 33% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D10
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Groin, D10
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays): Back, Day-to-Day
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
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