- Get MLB picks and analysis for Blue Jays vs. Mariners.
- The Mariners are -125 to win Game 4.
- Seattle is -250 to win the ALCS.
The Toronto Blue Jays will try to even the series when they face the Seattle Mariners in Game 4 of the ALCS at 8:33 p.m. ET on Thursday at T-Mobile Park on FS1.
Toronto got on the board with a 13-4 win in Game 4 on Wednesday, scoring five runs in the third to erase an early 2-0 deficit. Seattle now has a 2-1 series lead after winning both games in Toronto, needing two more victories to reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history.
Luis Castillo (11-8, 3.54 ERA) will get the start for the Mariners, while Max Scherzer (5-5, 5.19 ERA) will take the mound for the Blue Jays.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction ahead of Game 4:
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prediction for Game 4
- Mariners moneyline (-125)
My favorite Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction is Seattle’s moneyline (-125) in Game 4 of the ALCS on Thursday at T-Mobile Park.
Scherzer, who is one of the oldest MLB players at 40 years old, has had a legendary career. He’s won three Cy Young trophies and claimed two World Series rings. He’s posted a 3.22 career ERA in 483 games, striking out 3,489 batters in 2,963 innings.
But there is a reason why the Blue Jays haven’t asked him to take the mound since Sept. 24.
Scherzer struggled down the stretch, allowing four or more runs in five of his six final starts. I was watching in person when Scherzer was pulled in the first inning of a 20-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals on Sept. 19, in which he allowed seven runs on as many hits.
This is an opportunity for the Mariners to pounce on Scherzer early, as they aim to take a 3-1 series lead. His outs prop of 11.5 suggests that he might not last four innings, giving Seattle a chance to see Toronto’s bullpen.
I don’t mind fading Scherzer’s props in this one, but the Mariners -125 price tag offers the most significant edge. Ballpark Pal’s model projects a 60.6% chance of victory, suggesting a fair price of -154.
I’d back the Mariners at -130 or better on Thursday.
Prediction: Mariners ML (-125)
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds for Game 4
- Blue Jays moneyline: +105
- Mariners moneyline: -125
- Total: 7.5
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