- The Blue Jays are -115 favorites vs the White Sox
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
- White Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Toronto Blue Jays (-115) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-105) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Blue Jays vs White Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 45-40 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 43-43 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -110 | -115 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -110 | -105 |
Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 49 games (+21.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 36 of his last 45 games (+17.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+14.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+12.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 38% ROI)
White Sox vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
White Sox vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Tim Anderson | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
White Sox vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
White Sox vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Lucas Giolito | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 60 games (+17.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 away games (+4.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+2.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 31 away games (+1.35 Units / 4% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games at home (+4.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 38-47 against the Run Line (-12.95 Units / -12.15% ROI).
- 45-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.05 Units / -8.84% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -7.71% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -1.28% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (-7.75 Units / -6.73% ROI).
- 37-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.55 Units / -14.4% ROI
- 39-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -5.8% ROI
- 41-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -1.99% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a slugging percentage of just .250 (49 Total Bases / 196 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .395 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .250 SLG vs right-handed batters (best)– 100th Percentile and .582 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .173 (34-for-196) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 98th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (155 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (36/102) against Lucas Giolito in two-strike counts this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (90/272) against Lucas Giolito this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Lucas Giolito allowed a slugging percentage of .542 (198 Total Bases / 365 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (19/92) against Lucas Giolito this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Blue Jays are 6-2 (.750) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Blue Jays are 55-80 (.407) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Blue Jays are 67-58 (.536) on the road since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Blue Jays are 21-29 (.420) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The White Sox are just 4-14 (.222) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The White Sox are just 29-4 (.879) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The White Sox are just 11-7 (.611) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The White Sox are just 12-24 (.333) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .265 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Blue Jays hitters have just 370 strikeouts in 1,888 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 120 strikeouts in 635 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .260 (4,840 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have 152 extra-base hits out of 471 total hits (just 32%) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
White Sox has 1,319 quality ABs out of 3,224 total (41% QAB rate) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .221 (1,706 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .293 (2,438 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Blue Jays pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Blue Jays pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
White Sox pitchers have walked 335 of 3,319 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
White Sox pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 45 double plays in 600 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
White Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Roman González (White Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- Michael Clevinger (White Sox): Biceps, D15
- Yoán Moncada (White Sox): Back, D10
- Michael Kopech (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
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