- The Astros are -190 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder, 21.60 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy, 4.50 ERA
The Atlanta Braves (+155) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Braves vs Astros Over/Under is 12.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Braves are 2-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 2-2 ATS.
Braves vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -115 | O 12.5 -110 | +155 |
| Astros | -1.5 -105 | U 12.5 -110 | -190 |
Braves vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- David Hensley has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Korey Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 57 away games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -29.03% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 22.3% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -21.93% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 18.69% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 2-2 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 23.16% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -52.17% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 47.62% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 58% (15/26) against Bryce Elder over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.
Bryce Elder allowed an OBP of just .100 (20 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .299 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 53% of Bryce Elder’s pitches (52/99) with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Bryce Elder when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 95th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 37% (184/502) against Jose Urquidy last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
45% of Jose Urquidy’s called strikeouts were elevated last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 68% of Jose Urquidy’s pitches (896/1,317) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 99th Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 69% (1,318/1,908) vs left-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 97th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Astros vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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