- The Braves are -155 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
- Watch the game on SN1
The Atlanta Braves (-155) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+125) on Friday, May 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Braves vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 25-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 20-17 ATS.
Braves vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -105 | -155 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -130 | U 8.5 -115 | +125 |
Braves vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 67.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+13.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 38 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+9.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.00 Units / 64% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Blue Jays vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Blue Jays vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Blue Jays vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -135 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 37 games (+13.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 away games (+11.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+10.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+10.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 away games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 17-20 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -4.23% ROI).
- 25-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.1 Units / 13.61% ROI
- 22-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 17.06% ROI
- 14-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -25.7% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 20-17 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 2.01% ROI).
- 21-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -1.16% ROI
- 17-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -6.82% ROI
- 18-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -2.55% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has struck out 44% (37/84) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 42% (67 SO in 158 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 58% (28 SO in 48 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 43% (141/325) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .234 SLG vs right-handed batters (best)– 100th Percentile and .545 vs left-handed batters this season (seventh worst among qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .156 (12-for-77) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .081 (6-for-74) against Chris Bassitt with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .167 — 96th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (16/50) against Chris Bassitt this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 15th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Braves are 14-4 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 15-3 (.833) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Braves are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Braves are 6-3 (.667) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Blue Jays are 2-13 (.133) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Blue Jays are 21-19 (.525) when underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Blue Jays are 9-3 (.750) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Blue Jays are 38-27 (.585) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .549 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Braves have a winning percentage of 83% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves hitters are slugging .466 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters are slugging .684 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 309 strikeouts in 1,583 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .759 (6,053 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 86% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (155.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 539 of 7,475 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (111.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Blue Jays vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D10
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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