- The Blue Jays are + favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Watch the game on SN1
The Atlanta Braves (+) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+) on Saturday, May 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Braves vs Blue Jays Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 25-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 21-17 ATS.
Braves vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | + + | O + | + |
| Blue Jays | + + | U + | + |
Braves vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.60 Units / 96% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 39 games (+8.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Blue Jays vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Blue Jays vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 away games (+9.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+9.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 away games (+2.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.25 Units / 33% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 17-21 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -6.43% ROI).
- 25-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.6 Units / 10.82% ROI
- 22-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.75 Units / 13.94% ROI
- 15-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.6 Units / -22.67% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 21-17 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 4.02% ROI).
- 22-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 1.14% ROI
- 17-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -9.29% ROI
- 19-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.12% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 66% (41/62) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has allowed a slugging percentage of just .205 (17 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — 97th Percentile.
The last hit on a Bryce Elder breaking pitch was April 21st. Hitters are 0 for their last 29 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .162 (11-for-68) against Bryce Elder this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 91st Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has allowed a just .244 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth best)– 96th Percentile and .562 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth worst among qualified SPs)– ninth Percentile.
Jose Berrios allowed a batting average of just .167 vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 95th Percentile and .309 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 14th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 45% (18/40) against Jose Berrios in late innings since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .105 (2-for-19) against Jose Berrios on low fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — 92nd Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Braves are 14-4 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Braves are 15-4 (.789) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Braves are 6-3 (.667) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Blue Jays are 9-10 (.474) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Blue Jays are 10-3 (.769) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Blue Jays are 2-13 (.133) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Blue Jays are 39-27 (.591) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .549 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .812 (2,087 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Braves have a winning percentage of 83% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .923 (449 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 59 strikeouts in 333 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 309 strikeouts in 1,586 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .330 (4,184 PA’s) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .330 (1,586 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 86% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 541 of 7,506 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 23 of 337 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D10
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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