- The Braves are -105 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Braves starting pitcher: Collin McHugh
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-115) on Sunday, May 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm EDT in Toronto.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Braves vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 25-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 22-17 ATS.
Braves vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +150 | O 9.5 -115 | -105 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -185 | U 9.5 -105 | -115 |
Braves vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 73.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+9.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.00 Units / 64% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pillar | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Blue Jays vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pillar | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
Blue Jays vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pillar | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Blue Jays vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 away games (+7.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 54% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.25 Units / 37% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 17-22 against the Run Line (-4.6 Units / -10.14% ROI).
- 25-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 9.03% ROI
- 22-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 11.24% ROI
- 16-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -19.75% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 22-17 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 7.18% ROI).
- 23-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 2.83% ROI
- 17-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -11.43% ROI
- 20-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 2.19% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Collin McHugh has not allowed a HR in any of his last eight starts dating back to May 6th, 2021 — John Brebbia has the longest active streak at 13.
Collin McHugh has walked 5 of 29 left-handed batters (17%) this season — tied for 13th highest among among 103 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 13th Percentile.
Collin McHugh has allowed an OBP of just .239 (92 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 98th Percentile.
Collin McHugh has walked 4 of 92 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position since last season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has walked 56 of 483 right-handed batters (12%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (77 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 43% (20/46) against Yusei Kikuchi when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has a strike rate of just 61% (1,214/1,982) against right-handed batters since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Braves are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Braves are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 7-5 (.583) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Braves are 15-5 (.750) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Blue Jays are 2-13 (.133) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Blue Jays are 22-19 (.537) when underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
The Blue Jays are 40-27 (.597) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Blue Jays are 43-61 (.413) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .549 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Braves have a winning percentage of 83% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .923 (449 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .744.
Braves hitters are slugging .466 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 310 strikeouts in 1,593 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .264 since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Blue Jays are batting .264 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Blue Jays are batting .375 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 86% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 117 of 1,801 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 2.51 (129.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 547 of 7,545 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D10
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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