- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
- Braves starting pitcher: Michael Soroka
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+100) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Braves vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 62-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 47-50 ATS.
Braves vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -105 | -120 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -115 | +100 |
Braves vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+11.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+9.30 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Andruw Monasterio has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 21 games (+11.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.75 Units / 64% ROI)
Brewers vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Brewers vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Brewers vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Soroka | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Freddy Peralta | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 37 games (+15.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 95 games (+14.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+13.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 91 games (+9.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+7.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 47-48 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 62-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 5.43% ROI
- 51-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.85 Units / 5.58% ROI
- 41-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -15 Units / -14.4% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 47-50 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -5.31% ROI).
- 54-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 5.79% ROI
- 41-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.85 Units / -15.64% ROI
- 52-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.1 Units / 6.72% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of 29% (66/226) versus Kutter Crawford in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 50% (6/12) against Mike Soroka — tied for 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Mike Soroka has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (7/15) vs left-handed batters over the past seven days (1 games) — 5th highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 19% — 90th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford had a strikeout rate of 41% (7/17) in close and late situations in 2022 — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of .647 (22 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .391 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .214 (9-for-42) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (252/802) against Freddy Peralta this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 94th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last seven games dating back to June 6th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Braves are 40-27 (.597) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 19-12 (.613) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Braves are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 16-14 (.533) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Brewers are 11-4 (.733) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Brewers are 13-9 (.591) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Brewers are just 0-39 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .890 (813 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .539 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves hitters are slugging .494 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Braves hitters are slugging .503 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .222 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Brewers are batting just .228 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .680 (906 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 49% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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