- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Brewers
- Braves starting pitcher: Allan Winans
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Watch the game on FOX
The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+120) on Saturday, July 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Brewers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 63-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 47-51 ATS.
Braves vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 9.5 -115 | -145 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -135 | U 9.5 -105 | +120 |
Braves vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 38 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 36 games (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+13.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 65% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 49 games (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+10.75 Units / 108% ROI)
Brewers vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Brewers vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 38 games (+16.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 96 games (+15.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+14.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 39 games (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.20 Units / 35% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 92 games (+8.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+6.35 Units / 7% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 48-48 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -1.19% ROI).
- 63-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.8 Units / 6% ROI
- 52-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 6.47% ROI
- 41-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.2 Units / -15.37% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 47-51 against the Run Line (-8 Units / -6.46% ROI).
- 54-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 4.91% ROI
- 42-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.85 Units / -14.57% ROI
- 52-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 5.52% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (716/997) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has a strike rate of just 58% (774/1,336) vs left-handed batters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (160/211) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has a strikeout rate of just 31% (108 SO in 349 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Braves are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 16-14 (.533) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Braves are 19-12 (.613) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Braves are 40-27 (.597) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Brewers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Brewers are 27-14 (.659) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 25-18 (.581) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Brewers are just 7-16 (.304) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .539 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .890 (813 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .503 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Braves hitters are slugging .476 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .221 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Brewers hitters have 683 strikeouts in 2,617 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have 243 strikeouts in 906 PA’s (27%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have won 49% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 18%.
Brewers vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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