- The Braves are -175 favorites vs the Brewers
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Brewers starting pitcher: Julio Teheran
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Atlanta Braves (-160) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+135) on Sunday, July 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Braves vs Brewers Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 63-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 48-51 ATS.
Braves vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +100 | O 10 -110 | -160 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -120 | U 10 -110 | +135 |
Braves vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 73.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+13.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+11.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+10.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+10.20 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+12.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+11.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+9.80 Units / 70% ROI)
Brewers vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Brewers vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Brewers vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Teheran | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Bryce Elder | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 39 games (+15.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 40 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 88 games (+9.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+12.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 93 games (+9.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games (+7.35 Units / 8% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 48-49 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -2.05% ROI).
- 63-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 5.1% ROI
- 52-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 5.43% ROI
- 42-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.2 Units / -14.27% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 48-51 against the Run Line (-7 Units / -5.59% ROI).
- 55-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 5.86% ROI
- 42-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.9 Units / -15.39% ROI
- 53-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 6.39% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 48% of the time (419/865) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (103/162) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 19% (84 SO in 452 PAs) this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 13th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 36% (84 SO in 230 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Teheran has allowed a slugging percentage of .659 (27 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .429 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (30/159) against Julio Teheran this season — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 94th Percentile.
Julio Teheran has an average fastball velocity of just 89.5 MPH this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 39% (95/241) against Julio Teheran on sliders this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 49% — ninth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Braves are 40-27 (.597) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 17-7 (.708) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 16-14 (.533) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Braves are 7-26 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Brewers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Brewers are just 7-16 (.304) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Brewers are 12-4 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 28-14 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .890 (813 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .539 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .818 (2,451 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Braves hitters are slugging .476 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .220 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .458 (2,041 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Brewers are batting just .228 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 56% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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