- The Braves are +100 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Braves vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Cardinals TV Channel: FDMW | FDSO | FDSE
The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+105) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO, MO.
This season, the Braves are 40-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 52-42 ATS.
Braves vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Grant Holmes 4-8, 3.46 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Matthew Liberatore 6-6, 3.70 ERA
Braves vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 +100 | -125 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -170 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Braves vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sean Murphy has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+16.10 Units / 230% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.60 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+12.70 Units / 254% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Masyn Winn has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+16.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 54% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 61 games (+14.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 71 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+9.07 Units / 17% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 33 games at home (+4.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 37-54 against the Run Line (-17.17 Units / -16.22% ROI).
- 40-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -36.48 Units / -25.35% ROI
- 36-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.2 Units / -19.79% ROI
- 51-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.7 Units / 11.64% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 52-42 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 4.24% ROI).
- 50-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 4.33% ROI
- 48-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 2.71% ROI
- 41-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -11.47% ROI
Cardinals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Cardinals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jurickson Profar (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cardinals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Cardinals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Matthew Liberatore (STL) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
30% of Grant Holmes’ strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Grant Holmes has allowed an OPS of just .453 (165 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 97th Percentile.
Grant Holmes has walked 11% of batters this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .154 (10-for-65) against Grant Holmes with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 98th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (47/134) against Matthew Liberatore when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Matthew Liberatore has thrown inside pitches 39% of the time (163/418) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Matthew Liberatore has walked 5% of batters this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 90th Percentile.
Matthew Liberatore has a strike rate of 67% (769/1,146) against right-handed batters this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 86th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Braves are just 3-26 (.103) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Braves are just 10-71 (.123) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Braves are just 10-57 (.149) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Braves are just 31-6 (.838) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cardinals are 105-5 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Cardinals are just 12-37 (.245) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Cardinals are 117-3 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Cardinals are 41-1 (.976) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .493 on the road in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .596 (3,314 PA’s) with two-strikes in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have struck out in 29% of their PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .474 (76 PA’s) against LHP this month (7 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Cardinals are batting .274 on changeups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 20% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% against Braves pitchers this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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