Braves vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 18, 2022, 11:16 AM
  • The Braves (37-28) are -200 favorites vs the Cubs (24-40)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (7-3), 2.56 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (1-5), 4.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Atlanta Braves (-200) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+165) on Saturday, June 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Braves vs Cubs Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 37-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 32-32 ATS.

Braves vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -115O 7 +100-200
Cubs +1.5 -105U 7 -120+165

Braves vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 62.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 51 games (+17.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 53 games (+15.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 51 games (+14.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+11.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 36 of his last 53 games (+9.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.45 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Jason Heyward has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Cubs vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Christopher Morel 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
    Frank Schwindel 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
    Ian Happ 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
    Jason Heyward 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
    Jonathan Villar 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

    Cubs vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Christopher Morel 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
    Frank Schwindel 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
    Ian Happ 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
    Jason Heyward 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
    Jonathan Villar 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

    Cubs vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Christopher Morel 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
    Frank Schwindel 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
    Ian Happ 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
    Jason Heyward 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
    Jonathan Villar 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

    Cubs vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Justin Steele 5.5 +105 5.5 -145
    Kyle Wright 5.5 -120 5.5 -115
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games (+13.27 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 15 games (+12.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.15 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 37 games (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)
  • Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 35-30 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 3.32% ROI).

    • 37-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.39% ROI
    • 35-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.65 Units / 7.89% ROI
    • 27-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.55 Units / -16.13% ROI

    Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 32-32 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -6.43% ROI).

    • 24-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.4 Units / -21.52% ROI
    • 31-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -4.17% ROI
    • 31-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -4.2% ROI

    Kyle Wright has walked 8 of 45 batters (18%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.

    Kyle Wright has allowed an OPS of just .535 (147 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .679 — 93rd Percentile.

    Kyle Wright has allowed a slugging percentage of just .276 (72 Total Bases / 261 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — 98th Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (52/91) against Kyle Wright this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.

    Justin Steele: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Justin Steele had a strike rate of 78% (60/77) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

    Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (497/686) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 99th Percentile.

    Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (108/238) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (32/49) against Justin Steele — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

    Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

    The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.

    The Braves are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

    The Braves are just 30-5 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.

    The Braves are 20-14 (.588) at home this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

    Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

    The Cubs are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

    The Cubs are just 17-2 (.895) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.

    The Cubs are just 3-23 (.115) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

    The Cubs are just 24-29 (.453) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

    Braves hitters have 206 extra-base hits out of 468 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    Braves hitters are slugging .719 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

    Braves hitters are slugging .533 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

    Braves hitters have missed on 29% of swings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Cubs hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 264 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Cubs hitters have 570 strikeouts in 2,307 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Cubs hitters are slugging just .157 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.

    The Cubs have a winning percentage of just 33% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.

    Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Braves pitchers have walked 54 of 582 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

    The Cubs have won just 10% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

    The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

    The Cubs have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

    The Cubs have won just 8% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

    Cubs vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.