- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) on Friday, June 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Braves vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 33-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 34-23 ATS.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 9 +100 | -120 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -120 | +100 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 57.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 away games (+11.40 Units / 63% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.95 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+12.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+11.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+10.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 55% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Charlie Morton | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 56 games (+12.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 away games (+5.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 away games (+4.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 games (+14.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 54 games (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 49 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 23-33 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -15.51% ROI).
- 33-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -1.12% ROI
- 31-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 11.64% ROI
- 22-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -20.24% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 34-23 against the Run Line (+10.85 Units / 15.29% ROI).
- 34-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.25 Units / 18.21% ROI
- 27-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -4.72% ROI
- 27-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -3.31% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (254/519) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (92/216) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .469 (15-for-32) against Charlie Morton’s inside fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .253 — first Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (294/692) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 92nd Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .149 (15-for-101) against Merrill Kelly’s non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 95th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OPS of just .518 (129 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .724 — 96th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OBP of just .240 (129 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .320 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .143 (3-for-21) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .360 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 29-21 (.580) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 10-8 (.556) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 26-2 (.929) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 78-20 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are just 22-11 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .910 (605 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .751.
Braves hitters are slugging .548 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Braves have scored first in 85% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Braves are batting .275 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (185/8,104) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .201 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 25% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 15% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Michael Tonkin (Braves): Neck, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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