- The Braves are -210 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Atlanta Braves (-210) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+170) on Saturday, June 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Braves vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 33-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 35-23 ATS.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -125 | O 8.5 +100 | -210 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | +170 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+13.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 away games (+11.40 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+11.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ryne Nelson has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 52% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -150 |
| Ryne Nelson | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 57 games (+11.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 away games (+4.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 away games (+3.45 Units / 8% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 57 games (+15.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+13.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 23-34 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -16.78% ROI).
- 33-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -2.42% ROI
- 31-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 9.49% ROI
- 23-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.6 Units / -18.34% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 35-23 against the Run Line (+11.85 Units / 16.34% ROI).
- 35-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.25 Units / 19.32% ROI
- 27-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.2 Units / -6.48% ROI
- 28-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -1.67% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 46% (126/277) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (238/592) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 42% (106 SO in 255 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 46% (44/95) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has struck out just 10% (12/115) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has thrown his changeup for a strike just 42% (42/101) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OPS of 1.003 (115 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .722 — third Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OBP of .421 (114 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .319 — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 29-21 (.580) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 11-6 (.647) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .466.
The Braves are 26-2 (.929) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Braves are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are 7-2 (.778) after a road loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Diamondbacks are just 79-20 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are just 22-11 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Diamondbacks are 20-12 (.625) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .548 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .910 (605 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Braves hitters are slugging .684 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .300 (2,362 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (185/8,144) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 3.02 (238.2 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Michael Tonkin (Braves): Neck, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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