Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 04, 2023, 3:33 PM
  • The Diamondbacks are -130 favorites vs the Braves
  • Braves starting pitcher: Michael Soroka
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (+110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) on Sunday, June 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Braves vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Braves are 34-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 35-24 ATS.

Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves+1.5 -185O 8.5 -105+110
Diamondbacks -1.5 +150U 8.5 -115-130

Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 62.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+14.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+14.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.95 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Kevin Pillar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 away games (+11.40 Units / 63% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+10.90 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ryne Nelson has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Josh Rojas 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Pavin Smith 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Matt Olson 0.5 +290 0.5 -500

Diamondbacks vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Josh Rojas 0.5 -200 0.5 +155
Pavin Smith 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Matt Olson 0.5 -210 0.5 +160

Diamondbacks vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Josh Rojas 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Pavin Smith 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Matt Olson 0.5 +145 0.5 -190

Diamondbacks vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mike Soroka 3.5 -125 3.5 -105
Zac Gallen 6.5 +120 6.5 -155
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 58 games (+12.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 49 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 away games (+4.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 58 games (+14.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 51 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 24-34 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -14.97% ROI).

  • 34-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -1.29% ROI
  • 31-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 7.41% ROI
  • 24-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -16.5% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 35-24 against the Run Line (+10.85 Units / 14.76% ROI).

  • 35-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.25 Units / 17.73% ROI
  • 27-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.4 Units / -8.18% ROI
  • 29-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.08% ROI

Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (12/19) against Mike Soroka — tied for 6th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 94th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .144 (160 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .093 (14-for-151) against Zac Gallen with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .166 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .120 (3-for-25) against Zac Gallen on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — 100th Percentile.

Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .306 (83 Total Bases / 271 ABs) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — 97th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Braves are 29-21 (.580) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.

The Braves are 27-2 (.931) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .785.

The Braves are 10-8 (.556) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Braves are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Diamondbacks are 27-2 (.931) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Diamondbacks are 7-2 (.778) after a road loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Diamondbacks are 20-13 (.606) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

Braves hitters are slugging .548 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.

Braves hitters are slugging .472 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

The Braves are batting .275 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Braves hitters are slugging .684 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.

The Diamondbacks are batting .200 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .300 (2,362 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Diamondbacks hitters have just 294 strikeouts in 1,511 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Diamondbacks have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have 272 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
  • Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
  • Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
  • Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
  • Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Tonkin (Braves): Neck, D15
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.