- The Diamondbacks are -130 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Michael Soroka
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (+110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) on Sunday, June 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Braves vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 34-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 35-24 ATS.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -105 | +110 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -115 | -130 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 62.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+14.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+14.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kevin Pillar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 away games (+11.40 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+10.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ryne Nelson has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Soroka | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Zac Gallen | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 58 games (+12.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 49 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 away games (+4.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 58 games (+14.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 51 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 24-34 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -14.97% ROI).
- 34-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -1.29% ROI
- 31-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 7.41% ROI
- 24-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -16.5% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 35-24 against the Run Line (+10.85 Units / 14.76% ROI).
- 35-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.25 Units / 17.73% ROI
- 27-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.4 Units / -8.18% ROI
- 29-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.08% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (12/19) against Mike Soroka — tied for 6th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 94th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .144 (160 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .093 (14-for-151) against Zac Gallen with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .166 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .120 (3-for-25) against Zac Gallen on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — 100th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .306 (83 Total Bases / 271 ABs) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — 97th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 29-21 (.580) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 27-2 (.931) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Braves are 10-8 (.556) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Braves are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are 27-2 (.931) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are 7-2 (.778) after a road loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Diamondbacks are 20-13 (.606) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .548 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Braves are batting .275 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Braves hitters are slugging .684 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .200 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .300 (2,362 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 294 strikeouts in 1,511 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Diamondbacks have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have 272 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Michael Tonkin (Braves): Neck, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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