- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+120) on Monday, July 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 56-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 40-43 ATS.
Braves vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -105 | -145 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -115 | +120 |
Braves vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 72.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 away games (+11.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+12.45 Units / 156% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+11.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.35 Units / 21% ROI)
Guardians vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Guardians vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Gavin Williams | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 26 games (+16.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 83 games (+14.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 74 games (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 41 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+4.70 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 42-41 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1.02% ROI).
- 56-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.2 Units / 10.13% ROI
- 46-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.6 Units / 9.41% ROI
- 34-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.75 Units / -18.35% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 40-43 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -2.57% ROI).
- 41-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -8.66% ROI
- 32-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -21.75% ROI
- 47-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +12 Units / 13.11% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 66% (93/141) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 49% of the time (364/742) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has allowed a slugging percentage of just .248 (33 Total Bases / 133 ABs) on the road this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .419 — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has an average fastball velocity of just 89.7 MPH this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.7 — fifth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Gavin Williams — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .231 — 97th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 4 of 28 left-handed batters (14%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents batted just .048 (1-for-21) against Gavin Williams — 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .201 — 95th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Kevin Kelly has the longest active streak at 17.1.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Braves are 14-20 (.412) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Braves are 16-9 (.640) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Braves are 39-24 (.619) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Guardians are 26-81 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 5-32 (.135) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Guardians are 10-24 (.294) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Guardians are 27-64 (.297) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .900 (771 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Braves hitters are slugging .544 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves hitters are slugging .497 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Braves hitters are slugging .502 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,229 strikeouts in 6,837 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,722 strikeouts in 9,295 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 52 of 750 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 140 of 2,210 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Kwan (Guardians): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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