- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
- Braves starting pitcher: Kolby Allard
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+120) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Guardians Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 57-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 40-44 ATS.
Braves vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 9 -115 | -145 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -135 | U 9 -105 | +120 |
Braves vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 away games (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.90 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+11.45 Units / 127% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+11.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+10.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Guardians vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Guardians vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Kolby Allard | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 27 games (+17.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 84 games (+15.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 27 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+16.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games (+8.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+4.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 43-41 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 2.02% ROI).
- 57-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.2 Units / 10.73% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.5 Units / 8.11% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.75 Units / -17.05% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 40-44 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -3.67% ROI).
- 41-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.1 Units / -9.52% ROI
- 32-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.95 Units / -22.69% ROI
- 48-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +13 Units / 14.04% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kolby Allard has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last seven games dating back to August 4th, 2021 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (341/535) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (341/535) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (341/535) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed an OBP of just .047 (64 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (5 games) — best among in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Braves are 39-24 (.619) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 16-9 (.640) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Braves are 12-5 (.706) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Braves are 18-9 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Guardians are 26-82 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Guardians are 5-33 (.132) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Guardians are 27-64 (.297) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Guardians are 10-25 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .544 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .900 (771 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .502 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Braves are batting .275 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,231 strikeouts in 6,870 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 436 strikeouts in 2,286 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 141 of 2,219 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.77 (1094.1 IP) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Guardians vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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