- The Braves are -165 favorites vs the Guardians
- Braves starting pitcher: Michael Soroka
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Atlanta Braves (-165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+140) on Wednesday, July 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Braves vs Guardians Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 57-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 41-44 ATS.
Braves vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | O 10 -110 | -165 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -110 | U 10 -110 | +140 |
Braves vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 74.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+11.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.60 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+11.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+10.45 Units / 104% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Guardians vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Guardians vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Soroka | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 85 games (+16.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 28 games (+16.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+12.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 76 games (+12.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+15.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 43-42 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1% ROI).
- 57-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 9.64% ROI
- 47-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.5 Units / 9.08% ROI
- 35-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.8 Units / -17.98% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 41-44 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -2.7% ROI).
- 42-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -8.31% ROI
- 33-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.95 Units / -21.34% ROI
- 48-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.95 Units / 12.76% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Soroka has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to August 3rd, 2020 — Kolby Allard has the longest active streak at 8.
Mike Soroka has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to May 29th — Carlos Carrasco has the longest active streak at 8.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (151/1,051) against Cal Quantrill since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has located his pitches away 61% of the time (1,166/1,922) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (36/273) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
20 of Cal Quantrill’s 72 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) have been backdoor since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Braves are 18-9 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Braves are 39-24 (.619) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 16-10 (.615) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Guardians are 27-82 (.248) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Guardians are 5-33 (.132) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Guardians are 11-25 (.306) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Guardians are 18-88 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .544 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .900 (771 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Braves hitters are slugging .497 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .787 (9,331 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,730 strikeouts in 9,375 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,234 strikeouts in 6,892 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 142 of 2,229 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 54 of 769 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.79 (193.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Guardians vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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