- The Braves (87-51) are -120 favorites vs the Mariners (77-61)
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (13-5), 2.48 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby (6-3), 3.15 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+100) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Braves vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 84-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 73-61 ATS.
Braves vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +145 | O 7 -115 | -120 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -175 | U 7 -105 | +100 |
Braves vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 65 of his last 87 games (+25.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+21.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 72 of his last 125 games (+17.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+14.95 Units / 107% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 83 of his last 125 games (+13.55 Units / 6% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 54 games at home (+15.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+12.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+10.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Mariners vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Abraham Toro | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Mariners vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Abraham Toro | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Mariners vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Abraham Toro | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Mariners vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +105 |
| Max Fried | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – away
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – home
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 70-64 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -1.43% ROI).
- 84-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 5.6% ROI
- 68-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 2.7% ROI
- 58-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.8 Units / -11.44% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 73-61 against the Run Line (+4.05 Units / 2.29% ROI).
- 76-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.35 Units / 8.55% ROI
- 61-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -7.21% ROI
- 66-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -0.5% ROI
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .434 (136 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .686 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (89/154) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .198 (24 Total Bases / 121 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has walked 28 of 646 batters (4%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 94th Percentile.
George Kirby: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (5/50) against George Kirby with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has not allowed a home run in any of the last 53.0 innings he’s appeared — Zac Gallen has the longest active streak at 59.1.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .384 (56 GB hits out of 146 GBs) against George Kirby this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .233 — 0 Percentile.
George Kirby has a strikeout rate of just 18% (19 SO in 106 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 77-15 (.837) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Braves are 31-5 (.861) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Braves are 60-8 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mariners are 59-1 (.983) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Mariners are 51-8 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Mariners are 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 41-30 (.577) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .665 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .557.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .848 (1,038 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Braves hitters have 262 extra-base hits out of 649 total hits (40%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .437 on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .163 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have been successful in 75% of their bunt for hit attempts since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 38% this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% against Braves pitchers this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 23 of 443 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Oblique, D10
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
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