- The Braves (87-52) are -130 favorites vs the Mariners (78-61)
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-5), 3.90 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales (10-13), 3.98 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-130) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+105) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Braves vs Mariners Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 85-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 74-62 ATS.
Braves vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -110 | -130 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -150 | U 8.5 -110 | +105 |
Braves vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 66 of his last 89 games (+24.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+21.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 73 of his last 127 games (+17.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+15.85 Units / 99% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 84 of his last 127 games (+12.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 56 games at home (+14.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+14.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Mariners vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Mariners vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Mariners vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -130 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 113 games (+25.57 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+13.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 away games (+11.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 41 away games (+8.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 66 away games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+17.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+15.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 59 games (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.50 Units / 51% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 71-65 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.13% ROI).
- 85-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.5 Units / 5.43% ROI
- 69-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 2.66% ROI
- 59-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.8 Units / -11.27% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 74-62 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 1.88% ROI).
- 77-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 8.48% ROI
- 62-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -7.11% ROI
- 67-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -0.5% ROI
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Jake Odorizzi since the start of last season is 384.9 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 399.1
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (395/800) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (716/1,594) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (1,035/2,234) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Marco Gonzales: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 28% (83 SO in 302 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 13% (83 SO in 660 PAs) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (219/1,209) against Marco Gonzales this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 15% (68/446) against Marco Gonzales this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 33-4 (.892) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Braves are 77-15 (.837) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mariners are 15-2 (.882) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Mariners are 58-2 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .884.
The Mariners are 32-15 (.681) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 33-10 (.767) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .519 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Braves hitters are slugging .439 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Braves hitters are slugging .488 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Braves hitters are slugging .663 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .558.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .163 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .217 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .301 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% against Braves pitchers this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 17 of 331 batters (5%) this month (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Oblique, D10
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
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