- The Braves (66-46) are -145 favorites vs the Marlins (50-61)
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-4), 3.75 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (7-7), 3.56 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Friday, August 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 66-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 50-61 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +120 | O 7 +100 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -145 | U 7 -120 | +120 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 61.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 69 games (+18.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 98 games (+17.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 58 of his last 100 games (+16.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 67 of his last 100 games (+14.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 31 away games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 27 games at home (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games at home (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -135 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 86 games (+17.92 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 62 games (+14.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 27 away games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 away games (+3.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 57-55 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -4.02% ROI).
- 66-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 0.74% ROI
- 58-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 3.48% ROI
- 49-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.8 Units / -12.01% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 50-61 against the Run Line (-20.1 Units / -13.52% ROI).
- 50-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.8 Units / -11.76% ROI
- 50-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -10.19% ROI
- 57-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 2.05% ROI
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (147 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
39 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .204 (22 Total Bases / 108 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .413 (26-for-63) against Max Fried on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — 10th Percentile.
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (82/200) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (128/325) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 45% of the time (201/443) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (158/403) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 29-3 (.906) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
The Braves are 30-7 (.811) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves are 57-14 (.803) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 23-28 (.451) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Marlins are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Marlins are just 7-25 (.219) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .668 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .558.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .843 (856 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Braves hitters are slugging .452 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,539 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 701 strikeouts in 2,539 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .222 (5,562 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .499 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Max Fried (Braves): Head, D7
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day
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