Braves vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 12

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 12, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (66-46) are -145 favorites vs the Marlins (50-61)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-4), 3.75 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (7-7), 3.56 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Friday, August 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 66-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 50-61 ATS.

Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +120O 7 +100-145
Marlins +1.5 -145U 7 -120+120

Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 61.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 69 games (+18.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 98 games (+17.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 58 of his last 100 games (+16.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 67 of his last 100 games (+14.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 31 away games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 27 games at home (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games at home (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)

Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Matt Olson 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Michael Harris 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Matt Olson 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Michael Harris 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Matt Olson 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Michael Harris 0.5 +260 0.5 -450

Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 6.5 -105 6.5 -135
Jake Odorizzi 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 86 games (+17.92 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 62 games (+14.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 27 away games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 away games (+3.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 57-55 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -4.02% ROI).

  • 66-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 0.74% ROI
  • 58-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 3.48% ROI
  • 49-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.8 Units / -12.01% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 50-61 against the Run Line (-20.1 Units / -13.52% ROI).

  • 50-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.8 Units / -11.76% ROI
  • 50-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -10.19% ROI
  • 57-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 2.05% ROI

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (147 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

39 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .204 (22 Total Bases / 108 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .413 (26-for-63) against Max Fried on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — 10th Percentile.

Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (82/200) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (128/325) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 45% of the time (201/443) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (158/403) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Braves are 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 29-3 (.906) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Braves are 30-7 (.811) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Braves are 57-14 (.803) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Marlins are just 23-28 (.451) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Marlins are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Marlins are just 7-25 (.219) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

Braves hitters are slugging .668 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .558.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .843 (856 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.

Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.

Braves hitters are slugging .452 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,539 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 701 strikeouts in 2,539 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .222 (5,562 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .499 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Max Fried (Braves): Head, D7
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.