- The Marlins are -125 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (+105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on Tuesday, May 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 19-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 12-17 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -110 | +105 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -125 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games at home (+13.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+7.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.45 Units / 50% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -150 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+12.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+9.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+6.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+3.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 13-16 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -6.65% ROI).
- 19-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 12.99% ROI
- 17-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.1 Units / 16.16% ROI
- 11-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -24.65% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 12-17 against the Run Line (-9.9 Units / -24.51% ROI).
- 16-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 14.84% ROI
- 12-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -17.19% ROI
- 16-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 8.4% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (28/44) against Bryce Elder this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Bryce Elder allowed a batting average of .322 vs right-handed batters (eighth worst)– ninth Percentile and just .143 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (fourth best among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (45/82) against Bryce Elder this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .095 (2-for-21) against Bryce Elder with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,149/1,591) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (756/1,049) in two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (884/1,591) against Sandy Alcantara since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OPS of 1.264 (25 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .699 — fourth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 25-17 (.595) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Braves are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 10-47 (.175) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Marlins are 7-0 (1.000) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Marlins are just 115-19 (.858) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are 1-12 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .793 (1,982 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Braves hitters are slugging .444 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Braves hitters are slugging .442 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
The Braves are batting .269 against LHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,521 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have 877 strikeouts in 3,217 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Stomach, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): The Miami Marlins placed OF AvisaÃl GarcÃa on the 10-day injured list., D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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