- The Braves are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder (2-3), 2.75 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (3-7), 3.53 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+130) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 100-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 78-81 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 7 +100 | -155 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 7 -120 | +130 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 62.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 78 of his last 109 games (+23.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 away games (+18.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+16.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 83 of his last 147 games (+15.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+15.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -155 |
| Bryce Elder | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 85 of their last 133 games (+29.22 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 109 games (+27.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games (+13.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 away games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 52 away games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 92 games (+25.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 49 of their last 83 games (+16.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 87 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+10.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-76 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -0.82% ROI).
- 100-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 5.31% ROI
- 79-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.23% ROI
- 72-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -8.41% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 78-81 against the Run Line (-14.3 Units / -6.81% ROI).
- 67-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.9 Units / -14.8% ROI
- 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -11.28% ROI
- 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.12% ROI
Bryce Elder: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 28 innings — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (9/41) against Bryce Elder — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 98th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has not allowed a home run in any of the last 33.2 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 73.1.
Bryce Elder has a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (29/56) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.343 (63 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .692 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .152 (30-for-197) against Jesus Luzardo on the road this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strike rate of just 58% (292/503) in two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .186 (52-for-280) against Jesus Luzardo this season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 96th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 45-33 (.577) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 7-45 (.135) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .117.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 53-9 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Marlins are just 49-14 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .488 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Braves hitters are slugging .444 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters have 1,107 strikeouts in 4,395 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (2,991 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Marlins are batting just .208 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have 976 strikeouts in 3,609 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,991 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Finger, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
- Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
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