Braves vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Braves (100-60) are -160 favorites vs the Marlins (68-92)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-6), 4.53 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (3-6), 3.56 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Atlanta Braves (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 100-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 79-81 ATS.

Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +105O 8 -115-160
Marlins +1.5 -125U 8 -105+135

Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 78 of his last 109 games (+23.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 away games (+18.15 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+16.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 83 of his last 147 games (+15.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+15.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Joey Wendle 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Jon Berti 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Bryan De La Cruz 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Joey Wendle 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jon Berti 1.5 +185 1.5 -275

Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Joey Wendle 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jon Berti 0.5 +250 0.5 -375

Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Braxton Garrett 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
Jake Odorizzi 2.5 -185 2.5 +130
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-77 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -1.31% ROI).

  • 100-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 4.71% ROI
  • 79-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -0.9% ROI
  • 73-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -7.8% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 79-81 against the Run Line (-13.3 Units / -6.29% ROI).

  • 68-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.55 Units / -14.01% ROI
  • 69-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.05 Units / -11.88% ROI
  • 82-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 3.67% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (9/92) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (49/198) against Jake Odorizzi in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (223/436) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (15/70) against Jake Odorizzi with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.

Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (103/250) against Braxton Garrett on sliders this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 90th Percentile.

56% of Braxton Garrett’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (238/682) against Braxton Garrett this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.

Hitters have chased 124 of Braxton Garrett’s 268 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Braves are 49-11 (.817) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Braves are 70-9 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Marlins are just 54-9 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Marlins are just 30-87 (.256) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Marlins are just 67-75 (.472) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Marlins are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Braves hitters are slugging .443 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters are slugging .625 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters have 1,108 strikeouts in 4,401 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves hitters are slugging .431 on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .396.

Marlins hitters have 828 strikeouts in 2,996 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .270 (1,300 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,996 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (2,996 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 17% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Steven Okert (Marlins): Triceps, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Finger, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Max Fried (Braves): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.