- The Braves (100-60) are -160 favorites vs the Marlins (68-92)
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-6), 4.53 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (3-6), 3.56 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 100-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 79-81 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | O 8 -115 | -160 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -125 | U 8 -105 | +135 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 78 of his last 109 games (+23.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 away games (+18.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+16.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 83 of his last 147 games (+15.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+15.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jon Berti | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-77 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -1.31% ROI).
- 100-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 4.71% ROI
- 79-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -0.9% ROI
- 73-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -7.8% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 79-81 against the Run Line (-13.3 Units / -6.29% ROI).
- 68-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.55 Units / -14.01% ROI
- 69-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.05 Units / -11.88% ROI
- 82-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 3.67% ROI
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (9/92) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (49/198) against Jake Odorizzi in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (223/436) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (15/70) against Jake Odorizzi with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (103/250) against Braxton Garrett on sliders this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 90th Percentile.
56% of Braxton Garrett’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (238/682) against Braxton Garrett this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 124 of Braxton Garrett’s 268 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 49-11 (.817) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Braves are 70-9 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 54-9 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 30-87 (.256) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Marlins are just 67-75 (.472) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .443 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters are slugging .625 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters have 1,108 strikeouts in 4,401 PA’s (25%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves hitters are slugging .431 on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 828 strikeouts in 2,996 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .270 (1,300 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,996 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (2,996 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.3).
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 17% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Finger, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
- Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
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