- The Braves are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Marlins starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-175) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+145) on Friday, September 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 96-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 67-80 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | O 9 -105 | -175 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -110 | U 9 -115 | +145 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 78.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+16.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+15.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+14.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 37 games (+16.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+12.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+12.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+10.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Johnny Cueto | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 137 games (+14.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 89 games (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 89 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+5.95 Units / 31% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+10.97 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games at home (+5.52 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.63 Units / 53% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 76-70 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 1.48% ROI).
- 96-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.1 Units / 4.27% ROI
- 80-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.55 Units / 6.54% ROI
- 63-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.85 Units / -15.52% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-80 against the Run Line (-29.9 Units / -15.27% ROI).
- 75-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -0.87% ROI
- 66-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.2 Units / -11.28% ROI
- 77-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 2.68% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has an average fastball velocity of just 89.8 MPH this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.0 — fifth Percentile.
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 45% of the time (587/1,296) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (134/227) against Bryce Elder this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 36% (120 SO in 336 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .464 (13-for-28) against Johnny Cueto in close and late situations since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .124 (12 GB hits out of 97 GBs) against Johnny Cueto with runners on base since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 100th Percentile.
Johnny Cueto has a strikeout rate of just 7% (2 SO in 31 PAs) in close and late situations since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Johnny Cueto has located his fastball inside 49% of the time (708/1,432) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 26-39 (.400) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Braves are 160-33 (.829) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves are 45-35 (.562) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are 13-139 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are just 33-75 (.306) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Marlins are just 11-29 (.275) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Marlins are just 20-71 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OBP of .400 (682 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters are slugging .532 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .844 (5,612 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Braves hitters are slugging .701 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 91 extra-base hits out of 328 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
Bet now on Braves vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
