- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster
- Marlins starting pitcher: Bryan Hoeing
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 96-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 68-80 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 9 +100 | -120 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -120 | +100 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 64.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+16.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 32 games (+15.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 82% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+13.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+10.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Shuster | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 76-71 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 0.87% ROI).
- 96-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.5 Units / 3.63% ROI
- 81-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.55 Units / 7.11% ROI
- 63-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.9 Units / -16.07% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 68-80 against the Run Line (-28.9 Units / -14.68% ROI).
- 76-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.11% ROI
- 67-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.2 Units / -10.59% ROI
- 77-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 2.02% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Shuster has limited playing time.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clayton Kershaw allowed an OPS of just .658 (82 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 99th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw allowed an OPS of just .439 (91 PA’s) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .720 — 99th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw allowed an OPS of just .543 (412 PA’s) against right-handed batters in 2022 — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 95th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw allowed a slugging percentage of just .329 (23 Total Bases / 70 ABs) when he was behind in the count in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 26-40 (.394) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Braves are 45-36 (.556) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 160-33 (.829) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are 7-61 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Marlins are just 34-75 (.312) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Marlins are 24-119 (.168) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Marlins are just 110-16 (.873) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Bryan De La Cruz (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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