- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 96-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 69-80 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -115 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -105 | +105 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 69.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 33 games (+17.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+17.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 82% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+12.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+11.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+10.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
| Charlie Morton | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 76-72 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.29% ROI).
- 96-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 3.16% ROI
- 82-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.55 Units / 7.67% ROI
- 63-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -26.9 Units / -16.59% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 69-80 against the Run Line (-27.9 Units / -14.06% ROI).
- 77-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.43% ROI
- 68-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.2 Units / -9.9% ROI
- 77-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 1.4% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (1,414/3,986) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (221/631) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (634/1,360) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (411/1,290) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (404/1,309) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed three-ball counts to 16% of batters they faced (192/1,194 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 28% (186 SO in 669 PAs) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 86th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed three-ball counts to 22% of batters they faced (192/861 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 45-37 (.549) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 26-41 (.388) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Braves are 160-33 (.829) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves are 36-17 (.679) after a home loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are 7-61 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Marlins are 13-139 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are 50-8 (.862) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Marlins are just 21-71 (.228) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .468 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves hitters are slugging .621 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .456.
Braves hitters are slugging .493 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves hitters are slugging .705 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Bryan De La Cruz (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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