- The Braves are -135 favorites vs the Mets
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-135) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+110) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 17-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 13-13 ATS.
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -105 | -135 |
| Mets | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -115 | +110 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 23 games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
| David Peterson | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.20 Units / 50% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+1.85 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 26 games (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 12-14 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -4.98% ROI).
- 17-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 11.99% ROI
- 16-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 22.01% ROI
- 9-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -30.38% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 13-13 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 2.85% ROI).
- 15-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.54% ROI
- 11-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -15.45% ROI
- 14-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 7.04% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .396 (157 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .720 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 16% (5/31) against Max Fried against right-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .180 (25 Total Bases / 139 ABs) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .403 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has not allowed a HR in any of his last six starts dating back to September 22nd, 2022 — John Brebbia has the longest active streak at 12.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has an ERA of 8.55 (20.0 IP) on the road this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.10 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .447 (17-for-38) against David Peterson’s curve and slider this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — first Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed a slugging percentage of .771 (27 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on sliders this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .429 (15-for-35) against David Peterson on sliders this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .211 — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 24-17 (.585) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Braves are 10-2 (.833) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Braves are 46-6 (.885) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 1-10 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Mets are 103-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Mets are 103-3 (.972) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Mets are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves hitters are slugging .674 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Braves hitters have pulled 53% of balls they’ve put into play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,923 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters have just 121 strikeouts in 629 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have just 965 strikeouts in 4,923 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have just 200 strikeouts in 1,005 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.12 (106.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Left Ankle, D15
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back Spasms, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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