Braves vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 28, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Braves are -135 favorites vs the Mets
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried
  • Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-135) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+110) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Braves are 17-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 13-13 ATS.

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +135O 7.5 -105-135
Mets +1.5 -160U 7.5 -115+110

Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.70 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 23 games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 52% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Eduardo Escobar has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)

Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Starling Marte 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Tommy Pham 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Mark Canha 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Matt Olson 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Starling Marte 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Tommy Pham 0.5 -155 0.5 +120
Mark Canha 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Matt Olson 0.5 -165 0.5 +125

Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Starling Marte 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Tommy Pham 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Mark Canha 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Matt Olson 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Fried 4.5 -140 4.5 +110
David Peterson 5.5 -155 5.5 +120
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.95 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.20 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+1.85 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 26 games (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 12-14 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -4.98% ROI).

  • 17-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 11.99% ROI
  • 16-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 22.01% ROI
  • 9-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -30.38% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 13-13 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 2.85% ROI).

  • 15-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.54% ROI
  • 11-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -15.45% ROI
  • 14-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 7.04% ROI

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .396 (157 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .720 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 16% (5/31) against Max Fried against right-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .180 (25 Total Bases / 139 ABs) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .403 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has not allowed a HR in any of his last six starts dating back to September 22nd, 2022 — John Brebbia has the longest active streak at 12.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

David Peterson has an ERA of 8.55 (20.0 IP) on the road this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.10 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .447 (17-for-38) against David Peterson’s curve and slider this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — first Percentile.

David Peterson has allowed a slugging percentage of .771 (27 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on sliders this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .429 (15-for-35) against David Peterson on sliders this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .211 — second Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 24-17 (.585) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Braves are 10-2 (.833) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.

The Braves are 46-6 (.885) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 1-10 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.

The Mets are 103-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .955.

The Mets are 103-3 (.972) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Mets are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.

Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Braves hitters are slugging .674 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Braves hitters have pulled 53% of balls they’ve put into play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,923 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Mets hitters have just 121 strikeouts in 629 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets hitters have just 965 strikeouts in 4,923 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets hitters have just 200 strikeouts in 1,005 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Braves pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.12 (106.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
  • Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
  • Edwin Uceta (Mets): Left Ankle, D15
  • Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
  • Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Elbow, D15
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
  • Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
  • Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back Spasms, D10
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
  • José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
  • Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
  • Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
  • Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.