- The – are favorites vs the –
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Watch the game on SNY
The Atlanta Braves () visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets () on Sunday, April 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 18-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 13-14 ATS.
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Mets | U |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 68.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 24 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.50 Units / 108% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games (+12.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+8.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 away games (+8.35 Units / 43% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+2.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+0.85 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 13-14 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -0.64% ROI).
- 18-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 13.9% ROI
- 16-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.1 Units / 17.26% ROI
- 10-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -25.96% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 13-14 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -1.81% ROI).
- 15-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -2.1% ROI
- 11-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -18.7% ROI
- 15-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +3 Units / 10.19% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 57% (12 SO in 21 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strike rate of 74% (176/238) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (104/261) against Spencer Strider this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 43% (49 SO in 115 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 40% (32/81) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 54% (180/333) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 31% (13/42) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed a BABIP of .121 against right-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 24-17 (.585) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Braves are 15-0 (1.000) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Braves are 46-6 (.885) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 103-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Mets are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Mets are 18-45 (.286) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Mets are 89-6 (.937) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,982 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Braves hitters are slugging .487 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Braves hitters are slugging .451 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,923 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have an OPS of 1.167 (75 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,855 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mets hitters have just 121 strikeouts in 629 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.03 (111.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Braves pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Left Ankle, D15
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- Brooks Raley (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back Spasms, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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