- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Mets
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Mets starting pitcher: José Quintana
- Watch the game on FOX
The Atlanta Braves (-225) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+185) on Saturday, August 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).
The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 73-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 44-71 ATS.
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -2.5 +100 | O 11 -115 | -225 |
| Mets | +2.5 -120 | U 11 -105 | +185 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 80.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 50 games (+20.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+19.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+13.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 43 games (+13.10 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+15.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 49 games (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+11.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.55 Units / 40% ROI)
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Reyes | 3.5 +145 | 3.5 -190 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 56 games (+17.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 66 of their last 114 games (+13.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 114 games (+12.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.43 Units / 43% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games at home (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.19 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+5.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 57-57 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -2.24% ROI).
- 73-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 2.25% ROI
- 61-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 5.7% ROI
- 49-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.05 Units / -14.54% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 44-71 against the Run Line (-37.45 Units / -25.51% ROI).
- 52-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.5 Units / -19.33% ROI
- 47-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.8 Units / -18.15% ROI
- 63-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +11 Units / 8.78% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (487/1,208) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 38% (107/283) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has 52 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 49% (101/207) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has not allowed a HR in any of his last 16 starts dating back to August 10th, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 55% (613/1,112) when ahead in the count since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has not allowed a home run in any of the last 91.0 innings he’s appeared — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Jose Quintana has allowed a slugging percentage of just .203 (65 Total Bases / 320 ABs) when ahead in the count since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: .299 — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 21-32 (.396) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Braves are 42-30 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 18-18 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Braves are 18-7 (.720) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 5-30 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Mets are 134-1 (.993) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 35-18 (.660) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Mets are 133-7 (.950) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .463 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Braves hitters are slugging .534 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .889 (936 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .522 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in just 39% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Mets have scored first in just 34% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Mets hitters have just 659 strikeouts in 3,220 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 1,474 strikeouts in 7,295 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Braves pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets pitchers have walked 95 of 1,004 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Lindor (Mets): Side, Day-to-Day
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Demetrius Stewart (Mets): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D15
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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