Braves vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 5

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets are -140 favorites vs the Braves
  • Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (9-6), 4.99 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (9-2), 2.78 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Atlanta Braves (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-140) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 63-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 57-48 ATS.

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves+1.5 -165O 8.5 -115+115
Mets -1.5 +140U 8.5 -105-140

Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 70.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 66 of his last 94 games (+22.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 56 of his last 94 games (+18.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 63 games (+16.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 54 of his last 92 games (+15.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+14.00 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+19.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+15.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+10.35 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+9.35 Units / 14% ROI)

Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +1200 0.5

Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Luis Guillorme 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Taijuan Walker 4.5 -140 4.5 +105
Ian Anderson 3.5 -155 3.5 +115
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 80 games (+20.77 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 56 games (+13.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 43 games at home (+20.02 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 105 games (+17.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 105 games (+9.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+9.30 Units / 13% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 54-52 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -2.21% ROI).

  • 63-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 0.68% ROI
  • 53-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.6% ROI
  • 49-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -7.98% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 57-48 against the Run Line (+9.8 Units / 7.69% ROI).

  • 67-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.1 Units / 11.05% ROI
  • 54-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.35 Units / 3.73% ROI
  • 45-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -11.98% ROI

Ian Anderson has allowed an OPS of 1.168 (91 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .758 — first Percentile.

Ian Anderson has a strike rate of just 56% (211/378) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Ian Anderson has allowed an OBP of .484 (91 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .319 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .382 (29-for-76) against Ian Anderson when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.

Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (107/469) against Taijuan Walker on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 33% — third Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 103 of Taijuan Walker’s 463 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Taijuan Walker has a strikeout rate of just 27% (7 SO in 26 PAs) with two-strikes — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (240/679) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 46% — fourth Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 27-3 (.900) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .661.

The Braves are 27-6 (.818) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Braves are 26-21 (.553) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Braves are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Mets are 30-4 (.882) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Mets are 57-5 (.919) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Mets are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Braves hitters are slugging .674 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Braves hitters are slugging .494 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .787 (1,079 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Braves hitters have just 1 strikeout in 40 PA’s (3%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .328 (4,012 PA’s) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Mets hitters have 207 extra-base hits out of 657 total hits (just 32%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 62% on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Ford (Braves): Neck, D10
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.