- The Mets are -140 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (9-6), 4.99 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (9-2), 2.78 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Atlanta Braves (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-140) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 63-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 57-48 ATS.
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -115 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -105 | -140 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 70.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 66 of his last 94 games (+22.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 56 of his last 94 games (+18.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 63 games (+16.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 54 of his last 92 games (+15.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+14.00 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+19.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+15.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+10.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+9.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Ian Anderson | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 80 games (+20.77 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 56 games (+13.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 43 games at home (+20.02 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 105 games (+17.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 105 games (+9.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+9.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 54-52 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -2.21% ROI).
- 63-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 0.68% ROI
- 53-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.6% ROI
- 49-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -7.98% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 57-48 against the Run Line (+9.8 Units / 7.69% ROI).
- 67-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.1 Units / 11.05% ROI
- 54-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.35 Units / 3.73% ROI
- 45-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -11.98% ROI
Ian Anderson: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ian Anderson has allowed an OPS of 1.168 (91 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .758 — first Percentile.
Ian Anderson has a strike rate of just 56% (211/378) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Ian Anderson has allowed an OBP of .484 (91 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .319 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .382 (29-for-76) against Ian Anderson when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (107/469) against Taijuan Walker on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 33% — third Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 103 of Taijuan Walker’s 463 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strikeout rate of just 27% (7 SO in 26 PAs) with two-strikes — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (240/679) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 46% — fourth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 27-3 (.900) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .661.
The Braves are 27-6 (.818) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Braves are 26-21 (.553) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Braves are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Mets are 30-4 (.882) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Mets are 57-5 (.919) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Mets are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .674 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Braves hitters are slugging .494 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .787 (1,079 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Braves hitters have just 1 strikeout in 40 PA’s (3%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .328 (4,012 PA’s) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have 207 extra-base hits out of 657 total hits (just 32%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 62% on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Michael Ford (Braves): Neck, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
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