- The – (73-33) are favorites vs the – (73-33)
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-3), 3.75 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (5-2), 3.54 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Atlanta Braves () visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets () on Saturday, August 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 64-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 57-49 ATS.
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Mets | U |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 74.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 66 of his last 95 games (+20.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 57 of his last 95 games (+19.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+18.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games at home (+16.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Peter Alonso | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Peter Alonso | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Peter Alonso | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -140 |
| Odorizzi | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 81 games (+21.77 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 57 games (+15.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 47 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 44 games at home (+19.02 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 106 games (+15.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 106 games (+8.80 Units / 7% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 55-52 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.44% ROI).
- 64-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 1.33% ROI
- 54-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.25% ROI
- 49-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.45 Units / -8.88% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 57-49 against the Run Line (+8.8 Units / 6.85% ROI).
- 67-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.75 Units / 10.09% ROI
- 55-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.35 Units / 4.55% ROI
- 45-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.9 Units / -12.85% ROI
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (141 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
39 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (162 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .188 (46 Total Bases / 245 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — 91st Percentile.
David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 35% (90/259) against Max Scherzer this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 35% (58 SO in 167 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .191 (184-for-964) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (402/1,076) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 28-3 (.903) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .660.
The Braves are 7-2 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are just 2-34 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Braves are 28-6 (.824) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Mets are 25-5 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Mets are 57-15 (.792) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets are 57-5 (.919) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .679 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Braves hitters have 274 extra-base hits out of 669 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves hitters have 232 extra-base hits out of 562 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 548 strikeouts in 2,796 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .750 (2,796 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have 208 extra-base hits out of 659 total hits (just 32%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Michael Ford (Braves): Neck, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
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