Braves vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 27

New York Mets' Starling Marte catches a ball during a spring training baseball workout Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024, in Port St. Lucie, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
  • The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Braves
  • Braves vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Braves / Mets TV Channel: BSSE | SNY

The Atlanta Braves (+100) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-120) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Braves are 54-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 51-52 ATS.

Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 3-5, 4.62 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 2-4, 5.08 ERA

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves+1.5 -210O 8 -115+100
Mets -1.5 +160U 8 -105-120

Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 34 games (+19.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+17.15 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+16.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+14.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 games (+12.70 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+29.00 Units / 145% ROI)
  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 38 games (+16.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+14.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 88 games (+29.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 47 away games (+13.79 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 94 games (+17.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 44 games (+16.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 21 games at home (+13.10 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 44-58 against the Run Line (-15.75 Units / -13.24% ROI).

  • 54-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.75 Units / -11.2% ROI
  • 36-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.6 Units / -27.42% ROI
  • 61-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.25 Units / 18.81% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 51-52 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -2.39% ROI).

  • 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 2.87% ROI
  • 54-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.3 Units / 4.72% ROI
  • 44-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -13.32% ROI

Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +350 0.5 -450
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Adam Duvall (ATL) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700

Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Jose Iglesias (NYM) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150

Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Adam Duvall (ATL) 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 +185 0.5 -250

Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tylor Megill (NYM) 5.5 -155 5.5 +120
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) 5.5 +125 5.5 -160

Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (124/353) against Spencer Schwellenbach this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 71% (562/795) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 54% of Spencer Schwellenbach’s pitches (431/795) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 97th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 10 of 212 batters (5%) this season — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .409 (176 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .324 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .396 (159-for-402) against Tylor Megill in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .447 (152 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .352 (45-for-128) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .262 — first Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.

The Braves are 96-61 (.611) after a win since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .504.

The Braves are 52-27 (.658) after a home loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Braves are 45-110 (.290) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 6-38 (.136) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.

The Mets are just 38-11 (.776) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Mets are just 101-17 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.

The Mets are 16-12 (.571) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.

team hitters – away

The Mets are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,117 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .746 (8,227 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Mets hitters are slugging .447 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (2,378 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Mets pitchers have walked 395 of 3,919 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have walked 86 of 917 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have walked 986 of 10,003 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
  • Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
  • Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
  • Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
  • Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
  • Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
  • Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
  • Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
  • Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.